PUBG positioning analysis

Greetings!

We, at GOSU.AI, are committed to help players to increase their skill in competitive games. Using math, match and data analysis, statistics, machine learning methods, we have successfully launched a service for DOTA 2 players, and now it is time for the alpha version of PUBG.
TL;DR: We are going to show you the hazard ratio of the positions in which you die.

Personal hazard map – CLICK

Problems

API PUBG gives very little information fow now, that’s why in popular statistical services you can only find out: the distance you traveled by car, the number of murders and from which weapon the victim was killed. Agree with us, according to this statistics, it is simply impossible to give any personalized advice, except: “try to kill more”.
But in one of the latest patches, developers have added the ability to view replays, which is very interesting for us, and we hope, that they will not stop working on their functionality.

Сonception

Now API has an interesting information – where the player was killed, and from which point the murder was made. We took 65 million pair events: “The coordinates of death and the coordinates from where the murder was made.”

Miramar
Miramar Kill (blue) and Death (yellow) heatmap

We were surprised to see the whole clusters of locations in which the number of deaths and killing varied greatly, which is quite strange. If we take the hypothesis that “there is a slice & dice in Pecado,” then the number of deaths and murders would be approximately the same. But no – there are explicit zones, where players die more often, and in most cases can’t oppose anything to their enemies. Accordingly, if a player constantly dies in areas, where it is difficult to counter the enemy – you need to think about positioning.

Hypotheses

We decided to divide the map into plots, and calculate the ratio of deaths to murders, for each of the plots, having obtained the “hazard” factor of each of the plots.

2018-01-23_20-11-09

In the first it was seen the squares 10 by 10 meters.
Several hypotheses have been put forward:

  • The player often dies in the areas with a high risk factor – problems with positioning during firing with the enemy.
  • The player often dies in the areas with a low risk factor – everything is good with positioning, but you need to work on aim / looting.
  • The player often kills an opponent while in a zone with a high risk factor – a high personal skill.
  • The player often kills an opponen while in a zone with a low risk factor – excellent positioning during shooting.
  • The player often kills an opponent who is in a zone with a low risk factor – a high personal skill.
  • The player often kills an opponent who is in a zone with a high risk factor – he knows the vulnerable positions on the map.

These hypotheses can be continuously generated by combining existing events, and when we have the opportunity to receive more information (accuracy of shooting, the ratio of dealt damage to the received, the speed of reaction to the appearance of the enemy on the screen, the quality of the equipment), it will be possible to show personal recommendations. Now we decided to stop at the dangerous areas in which the player often dies.

Die smartly

Consider two examples:

  1. You are a fan of playing in the Сasino-Pecado and constantly drop with twenty aggressive players. Not everyone can survive.
    Consider 2 players:
    a) The first, fell in Pecado, killed everyone, seized the car and went further with top loot. The average danger factor of the zone in which this player dies is – 40%.
    b) The second, dies in the arena of Pecado for five games in a row, during the first two minutes. The average danger factor of the zone in which this player dies is – 80%.It is obvious, that the second player should play more carefully and choose less popular places for the drop. At the same time, the first player can engage in skirmishes in more dangerous areas – he doesn’t die and the average hazard ratio doesn’t not increase.
  2. The player died on the road in the area with a hazard ratio of 80%. Although, he could move a couple of meters from the road, and it would be more efficient position, with a hazard ratio of 40%

Security is a success

The lower the average player’s risk factor, the better the player positions and controls the situation, dies in a later stage of the game, because of taking less dangerous positions.

RoadMap

  1. Customize the zones, refusing the simple squares, going to the buildings, shelters and so on.
  2. To analyze how dangerous the place from which the murder was committed.
  3. Download match results instantly, for all users.
  4. Aggregated rating “positioning” – the average percentage of danger zones in which
  5. Individual hazard maps depending on the time of death (early game, mid game, late game).In the future, we want to give unique tips for each player, detailed statistics of the player’s movements: how to effectively choose the zone for the landing, where to search for useful loot, how to choose the shelters, which weapons are more suitable for a particular game style, and so on.
    All the rest is based on feedback below the post.

Lets go

We will show you bad positions, from where you enter into a gunfight.
You will be able to understand how much safe you play, and also, where you had to move during the final gunfight, to increase the chance of winning.

Enjoy your personal hazard map – GOSU.AI

P.S. subscribe to our Twitter, it will be interesting.

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